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“1) With the prevalence of sites like yours, do you feel like your quantifiable edge has decreased or have you been able to leverage your other skills (game theory, lineup construction, etc.) to maintain or even increase your edge? From a theorycrafting perspective, the reason why DFS always remained nothing more than a low hanging fruit / learning exercise for me (in addition to being an old man who unless I automate real-time breaking news consumption I have no desire to put in the requisite work for point #3 that you raised) is because with static pricing and the availability of ever increasing accurate sites like yours, one would think the edge diminishes. Throw in the almost to double to sports wagering vig and I wonder how more serious DFS players such as yourself feel about your future quantifiable edge.”
I would question how quantifiable an Advantage Players’ edge ever was considering the pool sizes and vig. That is not to say it was not there it is just not as easily quantifiable as say monitoring CLV in sports betting markets. To cut to the chase, yes, advantage has diminished with the influx of quality information.
“2) Just to make sure I fully understand your EMH explanation, am I correct in concluding that the sharper the pricing gets on a site, the greater the edge for the DFS pro vs average user and, conversely, the softer the pricing is (cough DK), the more variance you will run across which actually decreases your edge. Are these statements correct?”
The theory would argue that if all pricing is perfect then there is no edge on the market. In other words simply solving for implied value would produce the optimal lineup. In which case the market is perfect and no one has an advantage. In this environment game theory as described above would yield the only edge and yes advantage players would benefit most. Softer pricing and for that matter softer lineup building rules leave a novice player a much better chance of lucking into success. Also with sites finding the weak salaries these variations are easily spotted.
I think any serious DFS player has considered ownership in relation to valuation. I have started several models to project ownership….several failed attempts. Which makes the “rouge” FD employee even more infuriating. I offer the following considerations:
The Efficienct Market Hypothesis(EMH) states valuations in a market are always correct as all known information is baked into the price of the asset. Of course this theory can hold true as the term market indicates that pricing is dynamic and of course determined by supply and demand. DFS pricing offers a near inverse situation. Pricing is static and salary algorithms are simply linear performance models that do not consider all possible pricing factors. In this environment demand is totally forgotten and supply is infinite as theoretically ownership of a given asset could be 100%. Which is a long way of saying the pricing algos are highly simplistic and sharp money can leverage variations. The 1st step in leveraging the prices is to understand implied value in relation to a given model’s EV. The 2nd way to leverage static pricing is to understand what other factors should have been considered in the assets valuation. For example a hitter got moved recently to the 2 hole or an NBA player has been playing with a bad wrist. Both situations will be missed in near term pricing and mostly undetectable in a model’s EV and valuation calculations. The 3rd is to monitor on-going news and make adjustments accordingly as late as possible till lock.
To answer the initial post, it is impossible to be successful at DFS without a sound understanding of game theory. 2 years ago making your own numbers and having an idea of implied valuations was all that was required to be +EV. Today with sites like DFSDoctors, quality numbers are available readily to the public, as such game theory, lineup construction and being able to leverage static pricing are the new keys to being truly +EV.
Lastly, YES simplistic point/cost valuation models are not as holistic as they possibly could be. They still, however, hold great value in beginning to find the +EV players in comparison to implied values.
My read is they have decided to make a peace offering in hopes of future legislation. I actually think they should have done this sooner to try and play nice with the AG.
Itishguy at this point we are not planning on releasing the NASCAR model data. But will be sharing overall thoughts here.
Trying to decide if Dillon is a safe cash play. Assuming he can lead some laps. But with a race this long the pole has some major risks.
Unfortunately, I do not have the time to get my site up and do DFSDoctors. We will be posting our strongest plays daily in this forum though.
