[doreedo1420]

I definitely agree with your overall point, that you need to try to predict ownership and thus base your ownership and allocations based on what the field is projected to have. I have yet to actually model the projected ownership percentages but I do it when I enter my lineups. It’s mostly based on instinct at this point which makes it impossible to quantify my overall edge in each contest.

The trickiest situations are when you project a person to have a high point total, a high value, and a high projected ownership. Essentially you think he’s going to be really good but everyone is going to have him (e.g. Westbrook when Durant was out last year). In those instances, I find it tough to fade completely even in GPP’s because I trust the projections so much so I often look to differentiate my lineups in other ways.

[doreedo1420]

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a must own in all cash games for me. Has a top 10 car and should move up through the field to get a lot of positional bonus points and has a nice price as well.

[doreedo1420]

I’m really interested to see what Harvick’s ownership will look like this week. Last week, he was roughly 70% owned but he is well known for his dominance at Phoenix. He’ll still be the favorite by I would guess his ownership will be more in the 40-50% range on Sunday.

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