@doreedo – Your post echoes where I’m at right now.
Obviously, I see the RG Field Reports and have a general idea of ownership percentages, but this is obviously an incomplete picture for numerous reasons (DK, late swap, contest price differences, contest type, etc.). Like you said though, I can instinctively get an idea, but this means I’m not getting an accurate, “precise” (with a certain confidence level) EV for each play. I guess continuing to work on my ownership projection model is a good use of my time.
Your line on “the trickiest situations are when you project a person to have a high point total, a high value, and a high projected ownership” is exactly the problem I ran into last year. My nature is to be contrarian so players like Doug Baldwin and his absurd TD rate to close the year, Devonta Freeman’s talent vs volume (weeks 3 and 4 specifically), etc were all players that fit your statement. Obviously, being severely underweight on those plays despite having point/cost projections due to what seemed like too high of ownership put me in the red for the season.
Thanks everyone for the confirmation bias I needed to keep working down this path.
