The character of Rick Vaughn from the 1980’s cult classic ‘Major League’ was defined as a hard throwing master of the strikeout…once he got glasses. This is the type of pitcher we value most in our fantasy MLB pitcher projections.
While they don’t necessarily have to be hard throwing, accuracy and the almighty strikeout are key to getting a favorable ranking from the DFS Doctors.
These two tools will help a pitcher progress deep in to the game, which is the exact type of pitcher that we are looking to enter in our lineups.
If you’re not going to go for strikeouts, you’ll need to find pitchers that have a high probability of winning their games while giving up a limited amount of runs. Using the odds offered by Las Vegas casinos and offshore sportsbooks is a great way to identify these players.
Fantasy Pitcher Sleepers
As a general rule, if you’re looking to roster high strikeout players, you’ll be looking at the higher priced side of the available pitchers. While we advise using these players, we’re not saying that you can’t find a valuable pitcher or two.
The most common situation where you’ll find a daily fantasy sleeper pitcher occurs when a pitcher not know for getting strikeouts faces a team that is prone to do so. This pitcher will generally be undervalued as the pricing on most sites is more in line with season long projections as opposed to daily.
The second spot you’ll find value is when a pitcher not known for strikeouts faces a team that is a pile of hot garbage. While this pitcher may not rack up the strikeouts, chances are good he’s a heavy favorite to get the points available for a win while having a good shot of going 6+ innings.
When you sort our projections by value, you’ll notice pitchers fitting one of the above mentioned criteria will fill the upper portion of our suggested picks.
MLB Team Totals
Another useful tool to use when you are selecting your DFS pitchers is to consult the MLB Team Totals that are being offered by the various offshore sportsbooks and Las Vegas casinos. In doing so you’ll get an easy look at which teams are projected to have scoring and low scoring games.
It goes without saying, you’ll want to avoid rostering a pitcher that faces a team projected to score 5+ runs. These games are prime locations for ERA point deductions. On the other side, rostering a pitcher facing a team expected to score 3 runs can be a great way to bolster your lineup by finding an underpriced option.
For the most part you’ll want to avoid adding a pitcher to your lineup that is facing a team expected to score 4.5 runs or better, while looking for pitchers facing teams expected to score 3.5 runs or less.
DFS Pitcher Ownership Numbers
As the prevalence of high quality daily fantasy projections increases the average player or fish is becoming more and more adept at fielding lineups with a higher ceiling. As such, it makes it all the more important to play the numbers when setting your lineup.
You’ll need to use pitchers that your competition doesn’t if you have any hope of winning that GPP MLB tournament.
A great way to do this is by keeping on top of any late pitching changes. These players may be underpriced and heavily favored to win their games. Most importantly, the later they get penciled in as the starter, the less they will be owned in any DFS Contest.
This also works for batters, as DFS sites price the lineup vs the pitcher they are facing. If a stud arm unexpectedly misses his start and his replacement is run of the mill, the batters he was supposed to face will be grossly underpriced.
The only way to find out about these late moves is by following MLB beat writers.. We’ve got a great twitter list that combines the beat reporters for all 30 MLB Teams. It’s a must follow.
